Scottish Cereal Production Plummets - Only Oats Rise

15th October 2012

Scotland's Chief Statistician today published the First Estimate of the Cereal and Oilseed Rape Harvest 2012.

This publication contains provisional estimates (based on industry reports) of the 2012 Scottish cereal and oilseed rape harvest along with commentary and graphics on longer term trends.

Bad weather across much of Scotland has had an adverse effect on this year's harvest, statistics published today have shown.

The figures show that cereal production is expected to decrease by 354,000 tonnes (12 per cent) to 2.5 million tonnes.

Average yields are expected to decrease by 14 per cent to 5.5 tonnes per hectare
Rural Affairs Secretary Richard Lochhead said:"This has clearly been a difficult harvest for many parts of Scotland and has also been much later than normal. With cereal yields and quality expected to be lower than usual, there is no doubt that this is a tough time for Scotland arable farmers.

"In an effort to mitigate the impact and ease any cash flow difficulties, we are working hard to ensure as much of the Single Farm Payment as possible can be paid in December.

Final estimates of the 2012 cereal harvest are due to be published in December 2012.

These provisional estimates indicate that, compared with the 2011 harvest:

Overall, cereal production is expected to decrease between 2011 and 2012 by 354,000 tonnes or 12 percent to 2.5 million tonnes. This would give the lowest level of production since 1994. Average cereal yields are expected to decrease by 14 per cent to 5.5 tonnes per hectare - the lowest since 1998.

Cereal areas (as reported in the June census 2012) increased by 11,000 hectares or 2 per cent.

Total barley production is expected to decrease by 112,000 tonnes or 6 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes.

Despite a 10 per cent increase in the area of Spring barley (as reported in the June census 2012), the expected 13 per cent reduction in Spring barley yield (to 4.9 tonnes per hectare) would result in a decrease in production of 5 per cent (to 1.408 million tonnes). Winter barley yield is expected to decrease by 8 per cent resulting in an expected 14 percent reduction in production, to 279,000 tonnes.

Wheat production is expected to decrease by 250,000 tonnes or 27 per cent to 683,000 tonnes. Areas (as reported in the June census 2012) decreased by 15,000 hectares or 13 per cent and average yields are expected to decrease by 16 per cent to 6.8 tonnes per hectare.

The production of oats is expected to increase by 9,000 tonnes or 8 per cent to 131,000 tonnes. This increase was due to a 9 per cent increase in area, despite an expected 1 per cent decrease in yield.

Oilseed rape production is expected to decrease by 40,000 tonnes or 26 per cent to 110,000 tonnes. This decrease was caused by a decrease in area of 2,000 hectares, and an expected decrease in yield of 23 per cent.

As well as providing government and stakeholders with early estimates of the size of the harvest, these results also meet a reporting requirement of statistical regulations from the European Commission.

The first estimates provide a useful early indication of final cereal production volumes. The estimates are derived through the annual Crop Report Meeting (CRM) which is a consultation with an expert panel of industry bodies and SG representatives. This annual consultation produces expected yields and expected production volumes, based on known production of around a quarter of all Scottish cereals. Although the estimates from the expert panel are fairly reliable, they tend to overestimate production in the region of 2 to 5 per cent.

John Vidal in the Observer 13th October 2012.
World grain reserves are so dangerously low that severe weather in the United States or other food-exporting countries could trigger a major hunger crisis next year, the United Nations has warned.

Failing harvests in the US, Ukraine and other countries this year have eroded reserves to their lowest level since 1974. The US, which has experienced record heatwaves and droughts in 2012, now holds in reserve a historically low 6.5% of the maize that it expects to consume in the next year, says the UN.

"We've not been producing as much as we are consuming. That is why stocks are being run down. Supplies are now very tight across the world and reserves are at a very low level, leaving no room for unexpected events next year," said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently.

Prices of main food crops such as wheat and maize are now close to those that sparked riots in 25 countries in 2008. FAO figures released this week suggest that 870 million people are malnourished and the food crisis is growing in the Middle East and Africa. Wheat production this year is expected to be 5.2% below 2011, with yields of most other crops, except rice, also falling, says the UN.

See full article at
www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/un-global-food-crisis-warning

Food Problems rising in UK and worldwide -
More reports on soaring food prices -
16 October - Evening Standard
Basic foods rise £7 in UK, say charity... but it's even worse elsewhere
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/basic-foods-rise-7-in-uk-say-charity-but-its-even-worse-elsewhere-8212727.html

16 October 2012 - BBC News
Charity handouts increase as food prices rise
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/19959592

The Guardian 16 October 2012
Inflation warning over 2.5% increase in state pension
Older people may struggle to cope with soaring food and energy prices in 2013, pensioner representatives say
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/oct/16/inflation-warning-state-pension-increase

Yorkshire Post
Rising number of children go to school hungry
www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/at-a-glance/main-section/rising-number-of-children-go-to-school-hungry-1-5026210

Huffington Post
Rising Food Prices: It's Time to Stop Burning Food as Fuel
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/melanie-ward/biomass-world-food-day-rising-food-prices-its-ti_b_1961758.html?utm_hp_ref=uk