SCOTTISH POPULATION HIGHEST FOR A GENERATION
27th April 2010
The estimated population of Scotland was 5,194,000 in mid-2009. This was a rise of 25,500 on the previous year, and the highest population since 1979.
Commenting on the publication of "Mid-2009 Population Estimates, Scotland", Registrar General for Scotland Duncan Macniven said:
"Scotland's population has reached a level not seen since the late 1970s. The increase in the year ending in June 2009 was 25,500, which was slightly greater than the previous year's 24,300.
"The rise was partly because there were almost 4,600 more births than deaths. Migration accounted for most of the increase although, at 21,700, it was less than the record 27,000 net migration in 2006-07.
"Fewer people came to Scotland from the rest of the UK than in the previous year - a net gain of 4,100. But around 42,700 people came from overseas and only 25,200 went in the opposite direction, giving a net gain of 17,500 people, which is the highest net gain from overseas migration since current records began in 1991-92. Movements to and from the armed forces from the civilian population resulted in a further net gain of 100."
Main findings
* The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2009 was 5,194,000, a rise of 25,500 on the previous year and the highest population since 1979;
* Between mid-2001 and mid-2009, Scotland's population increased by 2.6 per cent (+129,800) from 5.06 million to 5.19 million;
* Between mid-1999 and mid-2009, Scotland's population increased by 2.4 per cent (+122,050 ) from 5.07 million to 5.19 million;
* In the twelve months up to 30 June 2009, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 4,585, the largest natural increase since 1991-92;
* Over the year there was a net migration gain of 21,700 people. This includes net gains of 4,100 people from the rest of the UK, 17,500 people from overseas (including asylum seekers) and 100 people from the armed forces;
* Over the year 42,700 people (including asylum seekers) came to Scotland from overseas and 25,200 left Scotland to go overseas. The net gain of 17,500 is the highest since records began in 1991-92. The number of people who came to Scotland from overseas is also a record;
* The net gain from the rest of the UK was less than that from overseas. Over the year, 45,400 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 41,300 left Scotland to go in the opposite direction. The net gain of 4,100 is lower than the previous year's 11,500 gain because fewer people came to Scotland;
* Other changes including changes in the prison population, and changes in the number of armed forces stationed in Scotland, amounted to a decrease of 800 people.
* Among Council areas, between mid-2008 and mid-2009, Aberdeen City had the largest percentage population increase at +1.6 per cent followed by City of Edinburgh (+1.3 per cent) and Perth and Kinross (+1.2 per cent). Inverclyde had the largest percentage population decrease at -0.7 per cent, followed by Argyll and Bute (-0.5 per cent) and North Ayrshire (-0.3 per cent);
* Among NHS Board areas, Grampian, Lothian and Shetland had the largest percentage population increases (all +1.0 per cent). The only NHS Board areas to have experienced a decline in population were Ayrshire and Arran and Western Isles (-0.1 per cent);
* In the year to mid-2009, the city council areas experienced net losses of migrants to the rest of Scotland. However, more migrants came to the city council areas from overseas than went in the other direction;
* On average, there were 67 people per square kilometre in Scotland, ranging from 9 persons per square kilometre in Eilean Siar and Highland Council areas to 3,353 persons per square kilometre in Glasgow City Council area.
Background
1. Today's report gives estimated population figures for the whole of Scotland and for council and NHS board areas. The full publication (including council and NHS board area breakdowns) and previous years' population estimates can be downloaded from http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/population-estimates/index.html.
2. Comparable figures to today's report for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the UK will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) on 24 June 2010. ONS will also publish on 13 May 2010 revised population estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2008 for England, Wales and the UK as a result of the final improvements to their methodology following user engagement on improved methods and their indicative impacts. GROS are considering how these improvements could be applied in Scotland.
3. Information on births and deaths is derived from registration data for the period from 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009.
4. Information about migrants is derived from three key sources of data. The National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) provides information about moves between health board areas within the UK, with migration between council areas within Scotland estimated using data from the Community Health Index (CHI). The source of the information about overseas migration is primarily the International Passenger Survey (IPS). It is based on a small sample for Scotland, and hence there is a higher risk of error than with the remainder of the population estimates.
5. The UN definition of an international migrant is someone who changes country of residence for 12 months or more. So short-term seasonal migrants (likely to include some migrant workers from Eastern Europe) will not be counted in the migration estimates nor in the population estimates. GROS plans to assess ONS's method for estimating numbers of short-term migrants to see if it can be applied using Scottish data sources.
6. Further statistics produced by GROS can be accessed at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/index.html
7. Official statistics are produced by professionally independent statistical staff. General information on GROS statistics can be accessed at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/general-information-statistics/index.html
